There is a saying. Either believe in your strength or count on your enemy's lack of it. So far, despite all our blunders, we managed to come out of it, primarily due to blunders on behalf of our not so friendly neighbors. Lack of long term strategic thinking was always something our leadership brought with it. Knee jerk reactions - like deploying IPKF in Jaffna years back, to deploying CPRF against the Maoists.
South: India pursued a two pronged strategy here. First, it couldnt unbalance the Tamil sentiments openly, nor oppose the Srilankan interests directly, as it feared Lanka will run to China or Pakistan. What it did, was trying to ride both horses and ended up losing both. We did so some final making up with the Lankans by providing reconnaissance, but thats about it. So in effect, we have a small country, that for a long time was merely a satellite for the tamil kings, which now threatens us strategically by either siding up with the Pakistan-China (chinpak) Nexus.
Central: For long, regarded as stable, lack of proper political leaders (or worse leaders than else where) and exponential population growth coupled with lack of avenues for employement or rural empowerment, has generally led to dissatisfaction and a growing naxalite / maoist threat, which the security establishment has no clue on how to handle. By using excessive force, they will wind up alienating even sympathetic people. Our local police and security forces or ill-trained in the art of subtleness and are usually blunt, corrupt and under staffed/weaponed. This makes it a necessity to bring in outside forces (like Central reserves, Para military) who do not have sufficient data usually and only make situations worse.
North East: Now china doesnt want Singh to visit Arunachal Pradesh. Having successfully overthrown the India sympathetic monarchy in Nepal to be replaced by Maoist long funded by Chinese, and following a very aggressive "Dont talk about Tibet - Dont talk to Dalai Lama" china has successfully got itself enough time to mess with the "traditional" borders which were sort of un-contested under tacit agreement so far.
East: Bangladeshis, once hailing Indians as their saviours, now feel closer to their Pakistani brothers, Primarily - again due to excessive use of force by Border patrol and lack of immigration strategy. Currently our states bordering the Bangladesh are threatened with illegal immigrants, which also threaten in changing the demography of those states as well!
West: Pakistan. 'Nuf said! We were never bold enuf or on time! Thanks to out politicians who arem ore interested in making money than handling the affairs of our state!
North: Excessive force, Unconstitutional act of 370 giving Kashmir too much "isolation" and lack of integration wiith mainstream India.
To top it off, we have a "unclear foreign policy". While China kept quite all this time, while it was trying to come up to the top, and now is starting to employ "independent policy" in foreign affairs, India tried to exert "independent policy" in its early days - leading to the mess with Americans and unresolved Pak issue, and is now trying to align its views with Americans, when the american view itself is starting to wean. Not making nice enuf to Iran, But investing in Iraq before the war - hence forfeiting all those investments etc;
And if all these is not enuf, we have the "dumbest" weapon procurement policy!
Ok, Having said all (or most of it), It aint that bad. We can always count on out enemy's lack of sense (as Pakistan, repeatedly shows -- Case point for Pakistan to integrate back with India, I think).
Or Our Policy experts might be following this advice.. Appearing Unprepared and weak!
If your enemy is secure at all points, be prepared for him. If he is in superior strength, evade him. If your opponent is temperamental, seek to irritate him. Pretend to be weak, that he may grow arrogant. If he is taking his ease, give him no rest. If his forces are united, separate them. If sovereign and subject are in accord, put division between them. Attack him where he is unprepared, appear where you are not expected.
- Sun Tzu, the Art of War
Anyone interested in reading military strategy - by actual experts (lets hope!), can check this out. (Indian Defence Review journal - online)
So, What will happen in 2020?
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